Without much surprise, the government caved in. Again. Probably the biggest missed opportunity of the last 20 years in French politics.The government had tried a novel approach against an endemic problem in France, unemployment. After twenty years of government-subsidized programs, it decided to let the youth labor market somewhat regulate itself. The CPE wasn't a free-for-all capitalistic endeavor, mind you, but rather laid out the framework for at-will employment that would have afforded French companies flexibility and, mostly, given them a way to hedge their risk when hiring people with no experience.
As usual when acquis sociaux, or social entitlements, are put into question, the leftist labor and student unions were quick to protest. A novel fact, they were remarkably united, and managed to organize massive demonstrations. University students and civil servants with full job security descended on the streets at once to clamor for an end to this foolish idea of change.
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As usual when the protests are large enough, the government eventually gave in. Never mind that the labor unions represent less than 10% of employees, and student unions less than 5%. Get enough railroad workers, teachers, bus drivers and other public employees to side with the students, and you'll get where you want to go. It's tyranny of the minority à la Française. Meanwhile, everyone stuck at work because they would not have gotten paid had they gone on strike, is left stewing at a government that lets the street govern. Needless to say, the CPE law is being replaced by a government-subsidy program. Yet another inventive use of tax revenue. Partage des richesses, sharing the wealth, they call it. Too bad there's no wealth to be shared in the first place.
Part of the problem of course, is the disastrous political climate left in the wake of the 2002 elections. Protest vote had pushed the far-right racist candidate Le Pen to a head-to-head race against Chirac. That meant a rally by about 80% of the population behind a President many downright hated. We are now bound to face the same problem for the next presidential elections next year, based on the key actors from the conflict.
Chirac and Villepin have definitely alienated most of their supporters on the Right. Sarkozy, a favorite from the majority party, has placed himself as the master architect of the law reversal, "negotiated" with the unions. In the process, he may very well have also alienated a portion of his electorate. On the Left, the Socialists have tried to jump on the bandwagon and claim the victory as theirs, but the real winners are the unions. So on the Right, the mainstream party may be disavowed by its electorate, resulting in a possible good result for the far-right candidates; on the Left, the more mainstream Socialists may be beaten at their own game by Communist and Trotskist candidates (yes, we still have those).
All in all, 2007 will be yet another politically cataclysmic year for France. Unfortunately, I don't see how things will improve. It has been proven again and again that minority unions can force the government's hand. What is, then, the point of voting, and what is the chance of any reform, no matter how vital, going through?
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